A Market in Balance
The Manhattan weekly real estate snapshot for the week of April 10, 2026, shows a balanced market. Total inventory stands at 6,132 units, down 10.0% from this time last year. The 30-day demand reading reached 1,073 signed contracts, up 0.9% week over week. Supply is rising modestly; demand is rising modestly. What keeps this market from drifting is a specific asymmetry: supply has fallen harder than demand over the past year. That relative tightness continues to push prices upward, even as week-to-week activity looks unspectacular. The new-listing window is wide open right now, but it is already beginning to close.
Supply
At 6,132 active listings, Manhattan inventory remains meaningfully below any comparable spring from 2021 through 2025. The week-over-week increase of 3.6% is real, but context matters. The 2026 supply line on the UrbanDigs year-over-year chart sits well below every prior year, except 2022. Supply has ticked up. It has not moved the needle on affordability or buyer leverage. The market was low-supply last fall, low-supply through winter, and it remains low-supply now. Sellers continue to hold structural pricing power, exercising it quietly rather than in bidding wars.
Sellers face limited competition right now. A well-conditioned, correctly priced listing still has the field largely to itself. Buyers should note that the floor under pricing is firm. Waiting for inventory to loosen materially before committing may cost more than it saves.
Contracts / Liquidity Pace
The 30-day liquidity pace is UrbanDigs’ rolling measure of signed contracts. It reached 1,073 this week, up 0.9% from last week, but down 6.3% year over year. Crossing 1,000 contracts in April is a meaningful threshold. It signals that spring demand has arrived. The year-over-year gap is a necessary counterweight to that optimism. Last spring was not a banner year for Manhattan contracts, and 2026 is still trailing it.
Supply declined roughly 10% year over year, while demand declined roughly 6.3%. Supply fell faster, and that asymmetry matters. When fewer homes are available than buyers seeking them, sellers retain pricing power even in a slow market. That is the dynamic keeping values firm right now. Transaction volume, however, tells a different story. This market is not producing the deal counts seen in 2021 or 2022. Prices are holding and in some cases rising, but the number of units actually changing hands remains restrained. Tight supply is doing the work that strong demand would normally do.
This week at a glance
New listings surged to 578 this week, up 101 units from the prior week. That is a significant jump and the clearest sign that the spring supply has fully arrived. Sellers who held back through winter and spring break are now entering the market in force.
Contracts signed held steady at 253, up just 2.8 units week over week. Demand is present but not accelerating at the same pace as supply. Buyers are absorbing new inventory methodically rather than rushing to compete.
Off-market activity pulled back to 98, down 26.3 units from last week. That decline is worth watching. When off-market counts drop, it can signal that sellers who tested the waters quietly are either relisting publicly or stepping back. It does not indicate a loss of demand. It reflects a shift in how inventory is moving through the pipeline.
Taken together, this week’s data shows a market where supply is opening up faster than demand is responding. That is a normal mid-spring pattern. Buyers gain more options; sellers gain more competition. Pricing discipline becomes the deciding factor.
Chart du Jour – Listing success rate
This week’s chart tracks the Listing Success Rate. It measures the percentage of listings that receive a signed contract within 30 days of entering the market. The non-luxury segment (under $4M) is shown in green. The luxury segment (over $4M) is shown in gold bars.
The non-luxury green line has climbed to approximately 16% as of February data. That is its highest reading since early 2022, a notable move given that rates have been rising, not falling. The luxury bars are elevated versus their historical norms but have been essentially range-bound for several months.
The non-luxury line has been trending upward since mid-2025, while luxury has plateaued. This is early evidence of a leadership rotation. From 2022 through most of 2025, luxury held up better than non-luxury when rates rose. Buyers in the $4M-and-above tier were less rate-sensitive, and that insulated the segment. That dynamic is softening. The sub-$4M market is gaining relative traction. If the trend holds over the next few months, it could shift the source of the strongest demand. Worth noting: this chart carries an intentional 30-day lag. The February reading does not yet reflect any market reaction to April’s rate or tariff developments.
Rates / Macro
The 30-year conforming rate sits at 6.28% this week, down 7 basis points from last week and down 54 basis points from a year ago. The 30-year jumbo rate is 6.56%, up 4 basis points week over week and down 36 basis points year over year. Data via Optimal Blue.
The conforming rate declined while the jumbo rate rose this week. Jumbo financing is the product most relevant to Manhattan’s mid- to upper tier. It is not following the conforming lower right now. That divergence carries real implications. A buyer financing $2M at 6.56% is carrying a meaningfully higher cost of capital than the headline rate suggests. Conforming’s annual decline of 54 basis points has provided measurable relief at the sub-$1M price point. That relief has likely contributed to the non-luxury listing success rate described above. The luxury buyer financing in jumbo territory has seen less relief, only 36 basis points lower year over year.
In the Manhattan market, rates are a tailwind for non-luxury and a measured headwind for luxury. That pattern aligns precisely with what the listing success chart is showing.
Structural Theme: The leadership rotation
The most analytically interesting development this week is not a weekly number. It is the multi-year trend visible in the listing success chart. From 2016 through 2019, non-luxury regularly posted success rates in the high teens, occasionally above 20%. Luxury success rates were consistently lower. COVID disrupted that order. The rate shock of 2022 further inverted it: luxury buyers, less constrained by financing costs, sustained momentum, while non-luxury buyers stalled.
As of early 2026, the non-luxury and luxury listing success lines are converging. UrbanDigs calls this the “Convergence Zone.” Non-luxury has reached approximately 16%, a four-year high. Luxury has plateaued. Neither segment is above 20%, so most listings in both categories still take longer than 30 days to sell. What matters is the direction. Non-luxury is climbing while luxury is stalling. Below-$4 M listings are finding buyers more quickly than they have in years. Above $4M, the segment that outperformed through the rate-shock years is losing its edge. The competitive advantage is shifting toward the broader market.
Neighborhoods as Manhattan Micro-Markets
Manhattan-wide numbers capture the borough’s direction. They do not capture its texture. Each neighborhood, building, line, and layout operates as its own micro-market. School calendars, bonus season, and seller psychology each shape local conditions in different ways. So does the constant movement of people in and out of New York. Commercial leasing trends, office-to-residential conversions, and local tax policy further influence how buyers and sellers assess value. Shifts among major employers do the same.
This is why borough-wide supply, contract, and Market Pulse data must be paired with hyperlocal charts and recent trades. The value of a single listing sits at the intersection of product type, condition, exposure, employment confidence, and timing. National headlines and a handful of comps do not tell the full picture. TriBeCa is a useful lens for that reason. What the borough-wide data describes in broad strokes, TriBeCa illustrates in sharp detail.
TriBeCa Spotlight: A Tight Market Finding Its Footing
Manhattan supply is down 10% year over year. TriBeCa’s decline is nearly three times that severe. Active listings stand at just 142 listings, down 27.2% from this time last year and up 18.3% from last month. That monthly gain is real. The year-over-year deficit is the more defining number. Compared with spring 2025, buyers today have roughly one-quarter fewer homes to evaluate. That compression does not reverse because a few dozen new listings arrive in March. It takes sustained, multi-month supply growth to shift the underlying balance.
Supply: Low and Getting Lower
TriBeCa currently has 142 active listings, up 18.3% from last month and down 27.2% from this time last year. Year-to-date, supply is up 12.7%. That is encouraging directionally, but the base it is climbing from was very low. Net inventory trends show a surplus of new listings over removals last month. That is what pushed the active count higher. More homes are entering the market than are going to contract or being withdrawn. Supply is building, slowly. It is not yet at a level that gives buyers meaningful negotiating leverage across the board.
March brought 35 new listings to market, a 52.2% jump from February. That rebound reflects the return of seller activity after a quiet winter. The context matters, though. The rolling seasonal average for March is 57 new listings. At 35, TriBeCa delivered only about 61% of what a typical March would produce. New supply is arriving, but well below historical norms for this time of year.
Contracts and Liquidity Pace
TriBeCa’s liquidity pace, the rolling 30-day count of signed contracts, stands at 19. That is down 32.1% from last month and 20.8% below this time last year. Year-to-date, the pace is flat at 0%. April is historically the most active month for buyers in TriBeCa. The current 30-day reading of 19 contracts is a meaningful gap from what that seasonal pattern would normally deliver.
Monthly contract activity for March totaled 23 signed deals, up 27.8% from February. That is still 8.0% below March of last year. The rolling seasonal average for March is 33 contracts. At 23, the neighborhood is running about 30% below its historical norm for this month. The direction is right. The pace has not yet matched the neighborhood’s seasonal potential.
What this pattern signals: demand is present and improving month over month. It has not yet caught up with the seasonal calendar. Buyers are active but selective. Properties that are priced correctly and well presented are moving. Those that are not are sitting.
Market Pulse and Listing Climate
TriBeCa’s Market Pulse currently reads at 0.85, down 6.4 points from last month and up 2.9 points from this time last year. Year-to-date, the pulse is down 3.0 points. A reading below zero indicates the market is running below its seasonal average. At 0.85, TriBeCa is technically above that threshold, but the month-over-month decline warrants attention. The neighborhood was running warmer in February. March cooled it somewhat as new supply outpaced contract activity.
The Listing Climate paints a more optimistic picture. The ratio of signed deals to listings removed stands at 4.6 as of March. That is up 233.3% from last month and 84.0% above last year. The easy market threshold on this chart is 2.26. TriBeCa is well above it. Sellers are far more likely to achieve a signed contract than to see their listing expire or be withdrawn. The listing environment is favorable for sellers who price correctly and present well.
Listing Success and the Price-Cut Signal
TriBeCa’s listing success rate stands at 17% as of February data, up 7 points year over year and down 1 point from last month. The rolling seasonal average for February is 12%. A 17% reading is 5 points above the norm. That outperformance reflects the neighborhood’s ability to convert well-priced products quickly, even in a restrained demand environment.
The caveat is straightforward. A 17% success rate means 83% of listings do not go to contract within the first 30 days. Correct pricing is not optional. It is the mechanism. The neighborhood rewards it with speed and penalizes overreach with prolonged days on market and eventual price reductions.
Twenty price reductions were logged in TriBeCa in March, up 81.8% from February and 17.6% above last March. Sellers who entered the market in late winter at ambitious prices are recalibrating. The median discount for listings beyond 120 days stands at 6% as of February. That is down 3 points from the prior month and 4 points below last year. Longer-tenured listings are gradually finding their clearing levels. Even listings that moved quickly in Q1 carried a median discount of 6%. Negotiating room exists across the full timeline spectrum.
Price Per Square Foot and Days on Market
TriBeCa’s median price per square foot in March was $2,002, down 3.0% from February and 3.1% below this time last year. TriBeCa has historically commanded some of Manhattan’s highest per-square-foot pricing. A $2,002 median reflects a market that has repriced modestly from recent peaks without collapsing. The softening is real and creates entry points that were not available twelve months ago.
Median days on market stands at 81 days, down 2.4% from last month and 37.2% below this time last year. Year-to-date, days on market are up 20.9%. That reflects the slower start to the year in January and February. The year-over-year compression is the more meaningful signal. Well-priced listings are reaching contract faster in 2026 than they did at this point in 2025. Speed and supply scarcity are working together. The market is moving faster even as overall volume stays restrained.
Sizing up the Tribeca Market
TriBeCa is a condo neighborhood by nature and by constraint. Landmark protections and historic districts have kept new development exceptionally rare here for decades. What does get built tends to sell quietly, often before a public listing appears. That scarcity is not a temporary condition. It is structural, and the new development data makes it concrete.
The entire new development pipeline in TriBeCa currently stands at just 30 unsold units. Of those, only six are actively listed. The remaining 24, representing 80% of the available new-development inventory, are sitting in the shadows. They exist but are not publicly marketed. Buyers relying on portals to find new products in this neighborhood are working with a fraction of the actual picture.
March recorded zero new development contracts, down from 7 in March 2025. That is not a demand problem. The five projects currently in various stages of construction are not yet delivering a finished, closeable product. When they do, the math is stark: 65 Franklin, 32 Walker, 14 White Street, 101 Franklin, and 31 Lispenard will add fewer than 180 units combined to a neighborhood where resale supply is already at multi-year lows. Some of those units will trade through broker networks before a single public listing goes live.
What new development closings are showing is worth noting. The median closed price has risen to $4.65M, up 26% year over year, with price per square foot up 8.8% to approximately $2,000. Those are recorded sales from products that entered contract months earlier. They confirm that when TriBeCa’s new development does transact, it does so at a meaningful premium to the resale market.
In the resale market, demand is concentrated in two-bedroom condos. That tier is moving faster and absorbing supply more quickly than any other right now. Three-bedrooms have more inventory to evaluate and slightly less competition. The four-plus-bedroom market is quiet on the demand side, which creates more room to negotiate than overall neighborhood figures suggest. One-bedrooms bear watching: supply there nearly doubled from last month, giving buyers in that category more genuine options than they have had all year.
The 20 price cuts logged in March across the resale market are a recalibration, not a retreat. Sellers’ pricing to 2024 expectations are adjusting to where transactions are actually clearing today. Those who align with current conditions are moving product. The window for buyers to find genuine value in TriBeCa, across both resale and the incoming new development pipeline, is real. It is also finite.
Pulse of the Market This Week
Contracts, supply, and pricing are all moving in the right direction across Manhattan. The pace is measured, not explosive. Listing success rates in the sub-$4M segment are at a four-year high. The spring window for buyers is open right now. Within the next four to six weeks, new-listing volume will begin to fade as the season shifts. In TriBeCa, that window is even narrower. Fewer than 150 resale units are active in TriBeCa. The incoming pipeline adds fewer than 180 units across five projects through 2029. The supply equation does not get easier from here. Buyers who understand where demand is concentrated, and sellers who price to where the market actually is, will find traction. Everyone else will wait for the market to make the decision for them.
